AEG Market Intelligence — 2026 Edition
Executive Summary
As global decarbonization mandates accelerate, green ammonia and renewable hydrogen have emerged as two of the most strategically important energy carriers entering 2026. The regulatory environment—shaped by the EU ETS, FuelEU Maritime, IMO emissions trajectories, and Asia’s expanding energy-transition policies—continues to increase structural demand for low-carbon alternatives across maritime, industrial, and power sectors.
Yet the physical market is still defined by structural undersupply, uneven certification standards, infrastructure bottlenecks, evolving logistics pathways, and long lead times for large-scale production assets. These conditions create a unique procurement landscape: high demand maturity on the consumption side, but slow and uneven maturity on the supply side.
This report outlines the key drivers shaping the 2026–2030 green ammonia and hydrogen markets, identifies the logistics and infrastructure shifts affecting procurement decisions, and provides AEG’s institutional outlook on early access strategies, market timing, and long-term visibility.
- Regulatory Acceleration: The Primary Demand Catalyst
EU ETS Expansion (2024–2027)
The phased inclusion of maritime emissions into the EU ETS is creating a multi-year price signal that incentivizes early adoption of renewable fuels. Vessel operators face rising carbon costs on conventional fuels, creating direct economic pressure to consider RFNBO-compliant alternatives.
FuelEU Maritime (2025–2050)
FuelEU Maritime mandates progressive reductions in the GHG intensity of marine fuels, rising sharply toward 2030. Compliance costs escalate significantly for operators relying on fossil-based bunkers, reinforcing the commercial case for certified green ammonia and hydrogen derivatives.
Asia-Pacific Regulatory Momentum
Japan, Korea, and Singapore are advancing ammonia-co-firing, hydrogen blending, and pilot projects for ammonia bunkering. These early adoption zones will likely become anchor demand hubs.
AEG Insight:
2026 marks the point where regulatory costs begin to materially influence procurement strategy for shipowners, energy producers, and industrial operators. Early movers secure both cost advantages and supply visibility—critical differentiators in a tight market.
- Supply Landscape: Capacity Growth vs. Structural Constraints
Projected Global Demand
By 2030, combined demand for green ammonia and renewable hydrogen is projected to exceed tens of millions of tons, driven by maritime fuel transitions, industrial feedstock shifts, and regional energy-transition programs.
Current Certified Supply
As of 2024, global certified green-fuel supply remains extremely limited. The supply gap entering 2026 is substantial.
Regional Capacity Additions
- China is expected to supply the majority of new certified green-fuel capacity by 2030 due to large-scale renewable integration.
- Middle East projects are emerging but face distance, certification alignment, and offtake structure challenges.
- Europe remains consumption-heavy and supply-light, relying on imports for most early certified volumes.
AEG Insight:
Despite strong development pipelines, 2026 will still be defined by scarcity of certified product. Supply will not match demand until the late 2020s. Procurement desks must therefore emphasize visibility, early engagement, and long-term contract optionality.
- Certification, Traceability & Compliance: Increasingly Critical Differentiators
Green ammonia and hydrogen procurement is constrained not just by physical supply, but by the quality and acceptance of certification systems.
Key Standards Driving Market Acceptance
- ISCC EU
- RFNBO
- IMO and EU GHG intensity frameworks
- Lifecycle assessment standards validated by independent bodies
Traceability Requirements
Buyers require full lifecycle transparency, including:
- renewable power sourcing
- electrolyzer emissions
- hydrogen origin pathways
- carbon-capture validation
- chain-of-custody documentation
AEG Insight:
Certification credibility is becoming as important as volume availability. Procurement strategies in 2026–2030 must prioritize documentation governance, origin stability, and traceable lifecycle data—not just delivered tonnage.
- Logistics & Infrastructure: The Bottleneck That Defines 2026
Port Readiness and Bunker Infrastructure
Global bunkering hubs vary widely in readiness for ammonia or hydrogen derivatives. Singapore and parts of Japan have advanced pilot projects, while most global ports remain in early development phases.
Carrier & Vessel Considerations
Carriers face challenges in safely transporting ammonia and hydrogen derivatives due to containment requirements, terminal compatibility, and regulatory safety standards.
Cost-to-Serve & Corridor Alignment
Maritime logistics costs remain influenced by:
- limited carrier availability
- specialised storage requirements
- regional imbalances between supply and demand
AEG Insight:
The market will remain logistics-constrained for most of 2026. Procurement planning must integrate port-readiness assessments, corridor feasibility, and carrier capacity analysis into decision frameworks.
- Market Behaviour & Procurement Strategy Outlook for 2026
Contracting Models
- Fixed-price structures remain limited
- Hybrid structures indexed to carbon or renewable costs are increasing
- Long-term optionality and flexible ramp-up volumes are favoured
Key Procurement Priorities
- Visibility into certified production pipelines
- Early engagement with upstream producers
- Regional supply/demand mismatch analysis
- Multi-year procurement pathways
- Integrated carbon-cost modelling
AEG Insight:
2026 is the year procurement shifts from exploratory engagement to structured strategy. Buyers with pre-2030 optionality will maintain an advantage as regulatory compliance costs accelerate.
- Strategic Outlook: What Institutional Buyers Should Expect
Short-Term (2026–2027)
- High demand for certified renewable energy carriers
- Tight supply and uneven certifications
- Continued logistics constraints
- Growth in hybrid offtake models
Medium-Term (2028–2030)
- Significant new renewable capacity coming online
- Improved port readiness for ammonia bunkering
- Better harmonization of certification systems
- Early liquidity in derivative markets
Long-Term (2030+)
- Green ammonia likely to emerge as a primary marine fuel
- Hydrogen derivatives gain market share in industry and power
- Carbon markets become more integrated with physical procurement
